A bigger gift, or a safer swap?
P1 chose a two-letter gift over exchanging a singleton for ALIBI. The choice traded a larger possible reduction for a smaller guaranteed one.
We put NOT MINE through scripted games and independent AI subagents. Here’s what held up, what surprised us, and what still needs a real table.
Read the findings01 / ABSTRACT
Does the provisional game reach an ending, offer consequential choices, and reveal problems worth investigating before a human playtest?
A deterministic rules engine, reproducible scripted policies, and a separately reported four-seat subagent pilot. Rule enforcement and player decisions were kept separate.
All 530 scripted games reached a winner. The corrected agent pilot showed both repeated ALIBI exchanges and a useful alternative: building a larger matching bundle.
Keep Game 1’s rules unchanged for the next human playtest. Investigate repetition, targeting, defense timing, and teaching before adding mechanics.
Observed means recorded in this sample. Interpretation means an inference from it. Open means the study cannot yet answer it. These labels describe evidence type, not confidence scores.
02 / METHODS
Scripted policies test repeatable behavior. Independent subagents expose decisions and reasoning. Their results are reported separately.
The study stopped at the owner’s request for an early conclusion. It used 130 of a 1,500-decision agent budget, including the invalidated pilot. No rule variants were run.
Baseline 0.1-test-baseline is provisional. Each player starts with five public objects and four private action cards. Win by holding no scandalous objects; ALIBI does not count against winning.
| Category | Composition |
|---|---|
| 36 objects | 6 photo, 6 money, 6 key, 6 letter, 5 recorder, 5 ring, 2 ALIBI |
| 48 actions | 26 GIFT, 12 EXCHANGE, 6 DENY, 4 REDIRECT |
Object distribution, substitute access, exchange selection, ALIBI movement, refill timing, and tie handling are executable test defaults. The longer guide referenced in the brief was unavailable; these results do not confirm final printed rules.
The styles emphasized immediate shedding, saving defense, blocking the nearest winner, and consolidating matching groups. These are instructions to agents, distinct from the scripted implementations.
Eight fresh player assignments were used across two pilots. Exact backend model identity was not exposed. Shared filesystem tools remained technically available: independence relied on seat-only instructions and audited broker views, not an enforced sandbox. No fallback or hidden-information exposure was reported.
Random-legal samples legal physical actions. Greedy-shedding favors large bundles, winning exchanges, and consolidation. Defensive uses similar shedding logic while saving DENY for an imminent win. Leader-blocking adds a preference for gifting or redirecting toward opponents with fewer scandalous objects. None estimates hidden hands.
Primary seeds use 10000 + playerCount × 1000 + i, for i = 0…99. Starting seats cycle; style offsets change after each full seat cycle. The first five deals at each count also run with every other starter, giving 70 correlated rotation games.
Policy tie-breaking is seeded and samples physical actions; interchangeable card IDs affect weights. Legal-action counts therefore do not measure strategic depth.
Wilson intervals describe primary scripted game-level rates. Rotation deals and within-game style assignments are correlated; naive independent-observation intervals are not used for those comparisons. This is exploratory, with no claim of a preregistered or causal experiment.
03 / RESULTS / SCRIPTED
The main comparisons below use 400 primary games. Seat rotations and response stress tests remain separate.
100 games per player count · initiating turns, not minutes
No game reached the 300-turn cap. With 0/100 cap hits at each count, the 95% Wilson upper bound is about 3.7%; stalls remain possible.
| Players | Games | Median | P95 | Range | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 100 | 19 | 60 | 4–108 | 23.38 |
| 4 | 100 | 20 | 44 | 5–58 | 22.11 |
| 5 | 100 | 24 | 45 | 6–51 | 26.60 |
| 6 | 100 | 28 | 50 | 7–61 | 28.98 |
141 of 400 wins (35.25%) came from exchanging for ALIBI. Counts rose from 20/100 at three players to 53/100 at six. That is a reason to preserve and investigate the mechanic.
Availability changes with player count; initial ALIBI ownership also changes the starting scandalous count. This is an observed winning route, not a causal estimate of ALIBI’s benefit.
Four players: baseline-scripted-4p-14003-s3, move 29; baseline-scripted-4p-14004-s0, move 18. Six players: baseline-scripted-6p-16001-s1, move 17. Game IDs appear in the downloadable CSV; full replays remain in the local research archive.
Leader-blocking won 57 of the 100 four-player games. Each style had 100 seat assignments. These simple policies suggest target selection deserves attention in human testing.
Policy performance does not establish optimal play. Starter wins were 28/100; the 95% interval of 20.1–37.5% includes the equal-seat benchmark of 25%. This does not prove fairness.
In 42/100 four-player games, the eventual winner had previously held strictly the most evidence. Including ties, the count was 68/100.
The main sample contained 324 exchange opportunities that could award an opponent a win. None was chosen. The route exists; deliberate exploitation was not observed.
Three response conditions used the same 20 four-player initial states. All initiators used greedy-shedding; game rules stayed unchanged.
| Response policy | Median turns | Mean turns | Cap hits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary greedy response | 13 | 13.85 | 0/20 |
| Always accept | 11 | 11.60 | 0/20 |
| Spend defense when available | 12 | 13.45 | 0/20 |
The spend-defense condition uses DENY when available, otherwise REDIRECT toward the lowest scandalous count, breaking ties by seat. Defense changed play without forcing a cap hit in these deals. Faster does not necessarily mean better. These are policy stress tests, not rule variants.
04 / RESULTS / SUBAGENTS
Four independent players. Public objects. Private action hands. Explore the corrected pilot, one resolved turn at a time.
Each player receives five objects. P2 holds the one dealt ALIBI, which does not count against winning.
Public state after resolution · P2 holds ALIBI · lower counts are closer to winningP1 offers two recorders to P4. P4 redirects them to P3. P1 still sheds both objects.
P2 gives two letters to P1. P1 accepts; P2 drops from four scandalous objects to two.
P3 exchanges money for P2’s ALIBI. P3 sheds one scandalous object and adds one to P2.
P4 exchanges a letter for P3’s ALIBI. It has changed hands twice in consecutive turns.
P1 attempts to give two letters to P2. P2 spends DENY. Object counts stay unchanged.
P2 exchanges a recorder for P4’s ALIBI. P2 is back to two scandalous objects.
P3 takes the ALIBI from P2 in exchange for a letter. Four of the first seven turns now involve that ALIBI.
P4 exchanges money for a third photo from P3. Total counts stay the same, but P4 builds a larger matching group.
P1 offers two letters to P4, who redirects them to P3. P3 cannot open another response window.
P2 gives a letter to P1, who redirects it to P4. P2 still reduces their scandalous count.
P3 gifts two recorders to P2, who accepts. P3 drops from eight scandalous objects to six.
P4 gifts all three photos to P2. P4 drops from six scandalous objects to three. Observation stops here with no winner.
Turns 3, 4, 6 and 7 moved the same ALIBI between players. This was recurring strategy, not a detected identical-state loop.
P4 used turn 8 to make a three-photo group and turn 12 to give it away. Progress can mean fewer types before it means fewer objects.
Session tally: 7 gifts — 3 accepted, 1 denied, 3 redirected — and 5 exchanges. Four exchanges involved ALIBI. No substitutes, forced passes, invalid choices, or fallbacks were recorded. No winner was observed.
05 / QUALITATIVE FEEDBACK
These are paraphrased reflections from simulated players after an unfinished session. They help frame questions for people; they are not human testimonials.
P1 chose a two-letter gift over exchanging a singleton for ALIBI. The choice traded a larger possible reduction for a smaller guaranteed one.
P2 blocked an early gift, then had to accept two later bundles. Saving DENY might have helped, but subsequent play could also have changed.
P3 used ALIBI exchanges to slow P2. The immediate recapture showed how quickly that progress could be reversed.
P4 consolidated three photos instead of retaking ALIBI, then gifted all three. A setup turn produced a larger later transfer.
Matching bundles.
Visible objects, hidden actions.
One response window.
All ratings are out of five. A higher repetition rating means more repetition. There are only four simulated respondents, all from the same partial game; these are descriptive judgments.
| Player | Clarity | Agency | Tension | Repetition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| P2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| P3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| P4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Detailed memorable moves, alternatives considered, and reasons are included in the study data download. P3 disclosed that a retrospective history response was truncated; earlier assigned live observations covered those turns. That limits confidence in the retrospective review.
06 / VALIDITY & LIMITATIONS
A working simulation is useful evidence. Enjoyment, social dynamics, and final balance still need direct observation.
The first pilot was invalidated. The corrected pilot ended after 12 turns without a winner. All 12 formal tables, separate full design/adversarial reviews, and rule-variant experiments remain unrun.
The first broker omitted intervening public actions from automatic delivery. It was repaired and regression-tested. Seat views were audited, but shared filesystem access prevents a technical guarantee of isolation.
Test defaults may differ from final printed rules. Scripted opponents use narrow heuristics; subagent behavior can depend on prompts and model behavior. Results do not establish human strategy or fairness.
No people played in this study. Teaching time, handling cards, table talk, emotions, repeated targeting, accessibility, and real-world duration remain open.
The recorded validation passed 32 engine and broker tests. All 530 completed scripted games passed exact replay and public/private projection audits, covering 22,712 scripted decisions. Both retained agent replays also reproduced their states; all 19 corrected-pilot decision views passed public-history delivery checks.
The 400 primary games recorded zero invalid choices, forced passes, conservation failures, or detected full mechanical loops. No cap hits occurred in the separate 70 rotation games or 60 response tests. These checks support the implementation and retained observations; they do not retroactively validate the first pilot’s information quality.
Full state hashes, legal choices, private draws, and reasons remain in the local research archive. Downloads contain selected summaries and feedback, never the complete hidden-state or player transcripts.
07 / DISCUSSION & NEXT STEPS
Take Game 1 to a human table with matching bundles, ordinary ALIBI movement, the two-card substitute, and one response window intact.
Recommendation from partial evidence · no rule-change benefit measured| Evidence | Working interpretation | Next observation |
|---|---|---|
| 141/400 wins by taking ALIBI; repeated pilot circulation | Useful winning route; possible repetition cost. | Ask when recapture feels clever and when it feels like undone progress. |
| Leader-blocking wins 57/100 four-player games | Target choice can be consequential. | Observe whether repeated targeting creates tension or frustration. |
| P4 consolidates, then gifts three photos | Fewer object types may be meaningful progress. | Check whether players notice and enjoy setting up a bundle. |
| P2 spends DENY, then faces forced acceptance | Defense timing may create tradeoffs and low-agency turns. | Ask about the choice to spend versus save, and engagement between turns. |
The current teaser says: “Swap one object with another player.” A more explicit explanation under the tested interpretation would be:
Choose one of your objects and one of theirs, then swap them. DENY and REDIRECT cannot stop EXCHANGE. An ALIBI does not count against winning.
Also explain that redirecting a final bundle still lets its sender win; DENY stops the transfer. Confirm the actor-selects-both interpretation before using it in printed rules. The extra explanation has not been tested; observe whether it prevents mistakes without slowing teaching.
Proposed work. No human sessions or before/after rule comparisons have been completed.
08 / PROVENANCE & MATERIALS
This page presents the retained study artifacts. It introduces no new games, ratings, or experiments.
Study ID NM–01 · recorded 13 October 2026 (Asia/Kolkata; run timestamps use UTC) · rules version 0.1-test-baseline · exploratory, partial study.
playtest/results/findings.md — sample accounting, findings, and limitations.playtest/results/validation.md — validation and invalidated-pilot record.playtest/results/ambiguities.md — rule authority and provisional defaults.playtest/results/baseline-scripted/ — primary and rotation metrics.playtest/results/audit-*/ — matched response-policy conditions.playtest/runs/agents/games/pilot-4p-002/feedback-partial/ — four independent partial-session feedback files.playtest/README.md — engine, policy, orchestration, and replay instructions.These are repository references, not public file links. Full research logs stay local. The workspace had no Git revision; configuration hashes, replay states, source hashes, and an archived harness snapshot provide provenance.
npm run test:playtest
npx tsx playtest/src/runner.ts verify-run playtest/runs/baseline-scripted
npx tsx playtest/src/runner.ts replay playtest/runs/agents/games/pilot-4p-002
node scripts/prepare-playtest-study.mjsThe last command regenerates curated website data from retained artifacts. Agent decisions cannot be reproduced by replaying prompts alone; the deterministic engine can replay the choices already recorded.
A promising game is a hypothesis.
The next table gets a say.